Short-Haul Freight Is Up 35% in 2026: Rebuild the Truckload Network Around Local Moves

Truckload demand is not simply rising or falling. It is getting shorter.

FreightWaves reports that freight moving fewer than 100 miles is up 35% year to date in 2026, even as long-haul volumes weaken. That is a network-design signal, not just a market statistic. More freight is cycling among plants, ports, cross-docks, warehouses, and regional customers where loading time and appointment precision can matter more than highway speed.

Shippers should not manage this work as miniature long haul. Local moves have different cost drivers, failure modes, and capacity opportunities. The response is to identify repeatable density, redesign operating loops, and use transportation data to decide which lanes belong in a dedicated program.

Why more freight is staying local

Several flows can produce a rise in sub-100-mile truckload activity. Manufacturers transfer components or finished goods between nearby plants and overflow warehouses. Importers move containers and transloaded freight from ports to distribution nodes. Retailers replenish stores from regional facilities. Cross-docks split inbound truckloads into shorter outbound movements.

Longer truck moves face competition from rail and intermodal on lanes where distance and schedule make conversion practical. Inventory positioning can also shorten the final truck leg: freight moves in bulk to a regional node, then travels by truck within the local market. The result is not necessarily less logistics activity. It is a different mix of moves.

National price signals can obscure that change. Logistics Management's report on DAT's August Truckload Volume Index says average spot linehaul rates fell $0.20 per mile for van to $2.19, $0.14 for reefer to $2.61, and $0.20 for flatbed to $2.70. Each was described as the steepest August-to-August seasonal decline in its category. A soft national rate does not prove that a particular local market has abundant capacity at 2 p.m. on a busy receiving day.

Recalculate the economics per turn, not per mile

Mileage is an incomplete unit of cost for short haul. A 70-mile load that takes eight hours because of gate queues, live loading, and a missed appointment can be worse for a carrier than a 250-mile drop-and-hook move.

Build a lane cost model around the full turn:

• loaded and empty miles;
• travel time by time of day;
• origin and destination dwell;
• loading method and trailer requirements;
• appointment reliability;
• tolls, chassis, accessorials, and yard moves;
• probability of a same-day return load;
• driver hours consumed per completed turn.

Track revenue or cost per tractor-hour alongside cost per mile. The metric exposes lanes where a cheap linehaul rate is overwhelmed by four hours of unpaid waiting. It also identifies loops where two or three predictable turns per day can support attractive carrier economics and stable shipper service.

Pricing should explicitly address detention, canceled appointments, layover across shifts, and stop-off work. When those terms are vague, carriers price the uncertainty into the base rate—or reject the load when a better use for the truck appears.

Find repeatable loops in TMS data

Start with at least 13 weeks of shipment history and group moves by origin zone, destination zone, equipment type, day of week, and appointment window. Do not limit the analysis to exact facility pairs. Two origins five miles apart may support the same truck pool, while identical ZIP codes can hide incompatible operating hours.

For each cluster, calculate weekly loads, daily variation, tender acceptance, lead time, empty repositioning, dwell, on-time pickup and delivery, cancellations, and total accessorial cost. Then test whether individual one-way lanes can be connected into loops: plant to warehouse, warehouse to supplier, and supplier back to plant, for example.

The target is balanced time as much as balanced miles. A mathematically neat triangle fails if the second facility closes before the first releases the driver. Simulate the sequence with real appointment and dwell distributions, not ideal transit times.

Know when dedicated capacity earns its place

Dedicated service can improve reliability, but only when volume and operating discipline keep assets productive. An Inbound Logistics guide offers a useful screening rule: a short-haul local network should have at least one load per day when evaluating dedicated fleet service. That is a starting point, not a guarantee.

Score candidate lanes on four dimensions:

1. Density: Is there enough recurring volume to keep a tractor and driver working through the planned shift?
2. Balance: Can the network reduce empty miles through returns, transfers, or nearby reloads?
3. Predictability: Are orders and appointments stable enough to plan turns before dispatch?
4. Control: Can facilities reduce dwell, prepare paperwork, and prioritize the arriving local driver?

Where scores are high, compare a dedicated bid with transactional spot and primary-carrier costs on a total-cost basis. Include accessorials, service failures, expediting, administrative work, and the inventory effect of missed transfers. Where demand is volatile, use a hybrid model: commit predictable base volume to dedicated capacity and route peaks through contracted or spot carriers.

Protect appointments and driver utilization

Local networks multiply handoffs. A truck performing three turns may face six dock events, so one late release can propagate through the entire shift. Connect the TMS with appointment and yard status where possible, then flag loads when expected dwell threatens the next stop.

Give dispatchers a local control view showing tractor location, remaining hours, trailer status, gate arrival, dock assignment, planned release, and the next appointment. Establish escalation thresholds—for example, no dock assignment 30 minutes after arrival or a projected release that leaves insufficient travel buffer.

Facilities need accountability too. Publish dwell and on-time release by location, shift, and load type. If one site consistently breaks the loop, adding trucks treats the symptom while making the network more expensive.

The 35% rise in short-haul freight is an invitation to redesign, not simply renegotiate. Shippers that measure complete turns, assemble balanced loops, and dedicate capacity only where density supports it can turn local complexity into a durable service advantage.

Ready to uncover the local loops hidden in your transportation data? Request a CXTMS demo to see how lane analytics, appointments, tendering, and execution can work from one system.