The Cass Freight Index Rose Again—Separate Shipment Recovery From Cost Inflation

The September Cass Freight Index delivered the kind of headline the freight market has waited years to see: shipment activity increased year over year for a second consecutive month. But shippers should not treat a rising freight bill as equivalent proof of a broad demand recovery.

Logistics Management reports that the shipments index reached 1.062, up 1.9% year over year and 1.4% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis. That followed a 2.1% annual increase in August and ended a record 3.5-year run of annual declines. Meanwhile, the expenditures index reached 3.970, up 20.4% year over year and 6.7% from August.

That gap is the signal logistics leaders must unpack. More freight is moving, but the cost of moving it is increasing far faster than shipment counts.

A Recovery Signal, Not Yet a Recovery Verdict

Two positive months matter. The Cass data covers roughly $37 billion in paid freight expenses across hundreds of large shippers, making it a useful external benchmark for North American freight activity. The September report also points to modest retail and industrial growth, inventory restocking, higher container imports, and a smaller private fleet as support for for-hire demand.

Still, two months do not establish a durable trend. The index measures activity in the Cass customer base; it does not perfectly reproduce the lane, mode, commodity, customer, or shipment profile of an individual shipper. Its author also identified higher rates and fuel surcharges—not shipments alone—as drivers of accelerating expenditures.

The right response is therefore neither to dismiss the gain nor to commit capacity based on the headline. Treat the index as an alert to test internal data.

Split Volume From Price Before Calling the Turn

A freight-spend increase can come from five different sources, and each requires a different action.

First, shipment count can rise because customers are ordering more frequently. Second, average weight or cube can increase even if shipment count stays flat. Third, a shift from intermodal or LTL toward truckload can increase cost per movement. Fourth, linehaul rates can rise as capacity tightens. Finally, fuel surcharges, detention, reconsignment, redelivery, and other accessorials can raise the invoice without adding productive freight.

The September market offers strong evidence that price pressure is real. FreightWaves reports that the Logistics Managers' Index transportation-price reading reached 92.7, up 2.7 points from August. Because an LMI reading above 50 signals expansion, that result indicates unusually rapid price growth. Transportation capacity fell to 34.4, marking a tenth consecutive month of contraction, while utilization registered 66.1.

Those readings explain why expenditure growth can outrun volume. They also warn procurement teams against using total spend as a demand proxy.

Reconcile the Index With Your Own Network

Start with a comparable monthly bridge. Use the same set of business units and exclude acquisitions, divestitures, and accounting changes that distort the comparison. Then calculate:

• Tendered loads, accepted loads, and carrier rejections
• Shipment count, stops, weight, cube, pallets, and revenue
• Loaded and empty miles by mode and equipment type
• Base linehaul, fuel surcharge, and accessorial cost separately
• Cost per shipment, mile, stop, hundredweight, and revenue dollar
• On-time pickup and delivery performance

If shipments, weight, stops, and customer revenue all rise together, the network is seeing genuine demand improvement. If shipment count is flat while weight rises, consolidation or replenishment patterns may be changing. If spend rises while units and miles remain flat, the story is primarily inflation. If tenders rise but accepted loads do not, constrained capacity may be suppressing executed volume.

Lane and customer segmentation is essential. A national average can conceal strong retail replenishment in one region, weak industrial freight in another, or a single high-volume customer launch. Compare like-for-like lanes, then identify how much of the change comes from new business, existing-customer growth, mode shifts, and price.

Set an Evidence Threshold Before Buying Capacity

Capacity commitments are costly to unwind, so define the threshold before market enthusiasm takes over. A practical rule could require three consecutive months of year-over-year growth in internal shipments, positive growth in shipped weight or revenue, and improvement across multiple customers or regions rather than one account.

Add a service test: tender acceptance should weaken, spot exposure should rise, or contracted carriers should request more rate adjustments. Then add a margin test. Higher freight revenue is not enough if fuel and accessorials are consuming the gain.

Only when volume, breadth, capacity, and margin evidence align should a shipper accelerate an annual bid, lock in dedicated equipment, extend minimum-volume guarantees, or lengthen contract terms. If the evidence remains mixed, use smaller commitments: targeted mini-bids, short-duration lane awards, indexed fuel mechanisms, and backup carriers for exposed markets.

Turn Market Data Into a Repeatable Decision

The best market dashboard places external indicators beside internal execution data. Cass shipments and expenditures provide context. The LMI provides a directional view of price, utilization, and capacity. The shipper's tenders, invoices, weights, stops, and revenue determine what is actually happening in its network.

Review the combined picture monthly, record the decision threshold, and assign an owner for any procurement change. That discipline prevents two common errors: waiting until capacity is already scarce to secure coverage, and paying recovery-level rates before demand has truly returned.

See the Signal Clearly in CXTMS

CXTMS brings tenders, shipment attributes, carrier responses, rates, fuel, accessorials, service performance, and customer revenue into a common operational record. Teams can compare market indicators with their own lanes, isolate the drivers of spend, and trigger procurement action only when the evidence meets a defined threshold.

Request a CXTMS demo to turn freight-market headlines into measurable capacity and procurement decisions.